Monday, 30 January 2012

Looking for Intervention

I have added to my EURCHF and USDJPY long positions. I am looking for a reversal or pullback and also have one eye on possible intervention by the central banks.

Sunday, 29 January 2012

The COFER Database

The COFER database

COFER (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves) is an IMF database that keeps end-of-period quarterly data on the currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves. The currencies identified in COFER are:

U.S. dollar,
Euro,
Pound sterling,
Japanese yen,
Swiss francs, and
Other currencies.

Before the euro was introduced in 1999, the European currencies identified separately were:
European Currency Unit (ECU),
Deutsche mark,
French franc, and
Netherlands guilder.

Foreign exchange reserves in COFER consist of the monetary authorities’ claims on nonresidents in the form of:
foreign banknotes,
bank deposits,
treasury bills,
short- and long-term government securities, and
other claims usable in the event of balance of payments needs.

Foreign exchange reserves in COFER do not include holdings of a currency by the issuing country. For instance, the U.S. dollar assets of the Federal Reserve and the euro assets of the European Central Bank and member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union are not foreign exchange reserves. The definition of foreign exchange reserves in COFER is the same as that in the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS).

Source: IMF

Thursday, 26 January 2012

Quick AUDUSD short trade

I placed a quick AUDUSD short trade today where I was purely looking for a pull back after the long upward thrust in the pair. I got the move I was looking for in a matter of hours and closed out with 50 pips.

I only traded small size at 5000, but this was more to get back to winning ways after my lengthy drawdown than a serious trade.

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

EURJPY and EURUSD positions closed

I have closed out my euro positions. I wanted to take advantage of the euro strength while it is there even though it seems there could be a lot further to run. The drawdown has taken away any neutral perspective I may have so I felt it better to get out, even if it means missing the move.

I have also reduced my USDJPY position, in part to cover the losses from the euro trades.

I have left the EURCHF trade open, with an eye on possible intervention.

There is very interesting fundamentals coming out at the moment and it ties in well with the Currency Wars book I am reading at the moment. I might take the weekend to reconfigure before thinking about some new trades.

Tuesday, 24 January 2012

The tide may be turning

As you can imagine, I have been sitting on my hands this last week watching the recovery in the euro closely.  From the depths of my recent drawdown of about £800, I am now down only about £160, albeit I have reduced some of my EURUSD position for a small loss.

The EURUSD has recovered from 1.26 to 1.30 and EURJPY from 96 to 101 today.  I am now conscious to hold on for as long as possible as the 'risk on' period continues, but also cautious not to ride both pairs back down.  I will probably look to reduce positions further in the coming days.

I am happy to hold my EURCHF trade while above 1.20, with one eye on intervention again from the SNB.  My USDJPY trade is also fairing better this week.

I have been extremely busy at work recently so not having much time for posts or reviewing conditions.

Saturday, 14 January 2012

Foreign Exchange Reserves held by Central Banks

Here is a list of the foreign exchange reserves held by Central Banks around the globe.  This data is published by the CIA.


RANK
COUNTRYRESERVES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND GOLDDATE OF INFORMATION
1China
$ 2,876,000,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
2Japan
$ 1,063,000,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
3Russia
$ 479,400,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
4Saudi Arabia
$ 445,100,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
5Taiwan
$ 387,200,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
6Korea, South
$ 291,600,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
7Brazil
$ 288,600,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
8India
$ 287,100,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
9Switzerland
$ 270,300,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
10Hong Kong
$ 268,700,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
11Singapore
$ 225,700,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
12Germany
$ 216,500,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
13Thailand
$ 172,100,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
14France
$ 166,200,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
15Algeria
$ 162,900,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
16Italy
$ 158,900,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
17United States
$ 132,400,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
18Mexico
$ 120,500,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
19Malaysia
$ 106,500,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
20Libya
$ 99,840,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
21Indonesia
$ 96,210,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
22Poland
$ 93,490,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
23Turkey
$ 86,080,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
24United Kingdom
$ 82,410,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
25Denmark
$ 76,520,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
26Iran
$ 75,060,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
27Israel
$ 70,910,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
28Philippines
$ 62,370,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
29Canada
$ 57,150,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
30Norway
$ 52,800,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
31Argentina
$ 52,230,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
32Iraq
$ 48,610,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
33Sweden
$ 48,300,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
34Romania
$ 48,080,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
35Netherlands
$ 46,240,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
36Hungary
$ 44,990,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
37Lebanon
$ 44,520,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
38Peru
$ 44,210,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
39South Africa
$ 43,830,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
40United Arab Emirates
$ 42,790,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
41Australia
$ 42,270,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
42Czech Republic
$ 41,950,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
43Egypt
$ 35,790,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
44Nigeria
$ 34,920,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
45Ukraine
$ 34,580,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
46Spain
$ 31,910,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
47Qatar
$ 31,190,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
48Venezuela
$ 29,620,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
49Kazakhstan
$ 28,270,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
50Colombia
$ 28,080,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
51Chile
$ 27,830,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
52Belgium
$ 26,810,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
53Macau
$ 23,730,000,000
2010
54Morocco
$ 23,610,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
55Austria
$ 22,280,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
56Kuwait
$ 21,360,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
57Portugal
$ 21,000,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
58Syria
$ 20,570,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
59Angola
$ 19,660,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
60Turkmenistan
$ 17,600,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
61Bulgaria
$ 17,230,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
62Pakistan
$ 17,210,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
63New Zealand
$ 16,720,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
64Croatia
$ 14,130,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
65Jordan
$ 13,650,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
66Serbia
$ 13,310,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
67Oman
$ 13,030,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
68Vietnam
$ 12,930,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
69Bangladesh
$ 11,180,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
70Uzbekistan
$ 9,800,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
71Bolivia
$ 9,730,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
72Trinidad and Tobago
$ 9,659,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
73Finland
$ 9,555,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
74Tunisia
$ 9,462,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
75Botswana
$ 7,885,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
76Uruguay
$ 7,657,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
77Sri Lanka
$ 7,197,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
78Latvia
$ 7,170,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
79Lithuania
$ 6,837,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
80Azerbaijan
$ 6,409,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
81Greece
$ 6,370,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
82Yemen
$ 5,942,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
83Iceland
$ 5,790,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
84Guatemala
$ 5,646,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
85Cuba
$ 4,847,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
86Bahrain
$ 4,789,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
87Ghana
$ 4,700,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
88Costa Rica
$ 4,627,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
89Congo, Republic of the
$ 4,465,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
90Bosnia and Herzegovina
$ 4,383,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
91Kenya
$ 4,321,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
92Paraguay
$ 4,167,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
93Cambodia
$ 3,802,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
94Burma
$ 3,762,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
95Cameroon
$ 3,665,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
96Tanzania
$ 3,645,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
97Cote d'Ivoire
$ 3,624,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
98Dominican Republic
$ 3,502,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
99Belarus
$ 3,431,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
100Papua New Guinea
$ 3,092,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
101Uganda
$ 2,960,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
102El Salvador
$ 2,883,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
103Panama
$ 2,715,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
104Honduras
$ 2,702,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
105Ecuador
$ 2,622,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
106Mauritius
$ 2,601,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
107Estonia
$ 2,568,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
108Albania
$ 2,541,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
109Jamaica
$ 2,501,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
110Equatorial Guinea
$ 2,346,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
111Mongolia
$ 2,288,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
112Macedonia
$ 2,278,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
113Georgia
$ 2,264,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
114Slovakia
$ 2,161,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
115Mozambique
$ 2,159,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
116Ireland
$ 2,115,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
117Zambia
$ 2,094,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
118Sudan
$ 2,063,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
119Senegal
$ 2,048,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
120Armenia
$ 1,866,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
121Ethiopia
$ 1,808,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
122Nicaragua
$ 1,799,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
123Gabon
$ 1,746,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
124Kyrgyzstan
$ 1,720,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
125Moldova
$ 1,718,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
126Brunei
$ 1,563,000,000
2010
127Namibia
$ 1,495,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
128Congo, Democratic Republic of the
$ 1,297,000,000
March 2010 est.
129Mali
$ 1,292,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
130Madagascar
$ 1,172,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
131Cyprus
$ 1,144,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
132Haiti
$ 1,108,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
133Slovenia
$ 1,108,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
134Burkina Faso
$ 1,068,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
135Bhutan
$ 1,002,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
136Benin
$ 953,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
137Lesotho
$ 918,600,000
31 December 2010 est.
138Rwanda
$ 812,800,000
31 December 2010 est.
139Luxembourg
$ 800,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
140Guyana
$ 782,100,000
31 December 2010 est.
141Niger
$ 760,300,000
31 December 2010 est.
142Swaziland
$ 756,300,000
31 December 2010 est.
143Aruba
$ 725,100,000
31 December 2010 est.
144Laos
$ 713,400,000
31 December 2010 est.
145Togo
$ 669,400,000
31 December 2010 est.
146Chad
$ 638,600,000
31 December 2010 est.
147Barbados
$ 620,000,000
2007
148Malta
$ 540,200,000
31 December 2010 est.
149Tajikistan
$ 506,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
150Sierra Leone
$ 409,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
151Timor-Leste
$ 406,200,000
31 December 2010 est.
152Liberia
$ 399,800,000
31 December 2010 est.
153Cape Verde
$ 394,200,000
31 December 2010 est.
154Zimbabwe
$ 376,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
155Burundi
$ 332,100,000
31 December 2010 est.
156Malawi
$ 280,100,000
31 December 2010 est.
157Mauritania
$ 280,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
158Solomon Islands
$ 265,800,000
31 December 2010 est.
159Suriname
$ 263,300,000
2006
160Seychelles
$ 235,600,000
31 December 2010 est.
161Djibouti
$ 230,600,000
31 December 2010 est.
162Samoa
$ 209,500,000
31 December 2010 est.
163Saint Lucia
$ 206,300,000
31 December 2010 est.
164Belize
$ 201,700,000
31 December 2010 est.
165Gambia, The
$ 201,600,000
31 December 2010 est.
166Central African Republic
$ 186,000,000
31 December 2010 est.
167Guinea
$ 179,400,000
31 December 2010 est.
168Saint Kitts and Nevis
$ 168,900,000
31 December 2010 est.
169Vanuatu
$ 161,400,000
2003
170Comoros
$ 146,100,000
31 December 2010 est.
171Eritrea
$ 96,500,000
31 December 2010 est.
172Sao Tome and Principe
$ 46,800,000
31 December 2010 est.
173Tonga
$ 40,830,000
FY04/05