Friday, 27 November 2015

Trading review 27.11.2015

PipsATRRL/SMarketRisk %Paper Profit
27109.93 3.31 ShortCopper0.752.42%
1661.55 0.52 LongUSDCAD0.750.38%
26161.43 0.71 LongUSDZAR0.750.70%

Thursday, 26 November 2015

PipsATRRL/SMarketRisk %Paper Profit
23778.71 2.90 ShortCopper0.752.12%
920.86 0.29 LongUSDCAD0.750.21%
14570.80 0.40 LongUSDZAR0.750.39%

Wednesday, 25 November 2015

Trading review 25.11.2015

PipsATRRL/SMarketRisk %
277010.15 3.38 ShortCopper0.75
1020.95 0.32 LongUSDCAD0.75
850.05 0.02 LongUSDZAR0.75

I picked a great time to get short TRY eh!  That trade got stopped out immediately yesterday for a full 1R loss (-0.83%)

I also exited BCO as price pulled back from the low (+0.63%)

I have re-entered USDZAR.

Monday, 23 November 2015

Trading review 23.11.2015

PipsATRRL/SMarketRisk %
4682.79 1.51 ShortBCO1.22
305111.18 3.73 ShortCopper0.75
1691.58 0.53 LongUSDCAD0.75
0-0.70 -0.35 ShortEURTRY0.75

I am finding commenting on the blog a bit of a chore at the moment so have decided just to show my positions.

I entered a new trade today in EURTRY.  This has been down sharply recently I am am looking to surf the trend.

Friday, 20 November 2015

Review; Last 20 trades

Like football managers that review their teams progress over a season in blocks of ten games, I heard a trader recently describe how he reviewed blocks of 20 trades.  I like this idea, so am going to steal it.

I have now had around 20 trades.  To get a better idea of my recent performance, I have also included my open trades as if I closed them at current prices.

Here are some of the stats:

Wins:  13 or 56% (6.97R and 20.52 ATR)
Losses: 10 or 44% (6.01R and 17.21 ATR)
Average Win:   0.54R / 1.58ATR
Average Loss:  -0.60R / -1.72ATR
Max Loss: -1.00R
Max Win: 3.35R

Loss Breakdown
0.5-1R:  6 trades (-4.58R)
0-0.5R:  4 trades (-1.43R)

Win breakdown:
0-0.5R: 10 trades (2.09R) (the scratch trades)
0.5-1.0R: 2 trades (1.53R)
>1R: 1 trade (3.35R)

Here are my initial thoughts:

I made profit!
No trade has exceeded my initial risk.  In Van Tharp speak, no >1R losses.
My trade sizing has been reasonably constant and so my ATR capture has translated well in to R

Room for work
I am running my losses more than my profit in ATR terms.
1 big trade accounts for much of the profit side.  Without it, I am losing.
My winning trades were the same size as my losing trades
Some of my larger losing trades were trades that later would have been profitable.  Poor entry, in too early?

I clearly need to work on my trading plan.  I am still massively over vague about what I am trying to do.  I am going to give it some thought over the weekend.

Trading review 20.11.2015

Not a great deal of change in my P&L today.  A quick update below...

This is back down today, so I may have gotten out early.  I will monitor and potentially re-enter.

We have been unable to break and hold 1.3350.  My stop is now fairly tight going in to the weekend.

We looked to have failed at 43.50.  I stay short though.

This is going sideways at the moment.  My trailing stop is tightening.

Sugar is back testing the high!

As I write we have broken 2.05.

Thursday, 19 November 2015

Trading review 19.11.2015

Following the FOMC minutes, the dollar has weakened and as a result I have been taken out of my GBP and ZAR trades.  I feel a need to break and regroup and set about working on defining my approach a little more clearly.  I am still 'playing it by ear' at the moment.  I am  also still getting used to trading a longer term timeframe and adopting a trend following approach.

I was stopped out, so this ended up being a scratch trade more or less at 0.15%.  Have I trailed my stop too close?  Time will tell.  It may be I need to give things more room even if it goes against my natural inclination to be defensive.  I will look to get back in if the upmove peters out.

I didnt get stopped out on this one...CAD must be weak.  I stay long.

This is struggling to move lower.  If it fails to do so I anticipate the bulls will gain the upper hand.

This failed to break 8.50 and now looks to be giving up.  My trailing stop (moving average) is tightening, so I'll give it just a little more room.

This was back up today...Have I got out too early?

This is the most obedient trend you could hope for, lower lows or lower highs most days.

This also got stopped out, so another scratch trade at 0.30%.

Wednesday, 18 November 2015

Trading review 18.11.2015

Paper profits slipped back slightly today.  I am writing just ahead of the FOMC minutes so that could change as I type.

No real movement today ahead of the minutes.  I stay short.


Lower highs continues but we seem to be hitting support at the prior low.  Can we break and hold 43?  We wait and see.  I stay short.

I suggested yesterday that we had failed to break 8.50.  the bears seem to have regained control today with the pullback making it to 8.67.  We are now looking to retest 8.50.  I stay short.

I was finally taken out of the trade today.  It ended up being a scratch trade, with a small 0.22% gain.  I might had trailed the stop a bit close.  I will continue to monitor this one.

Another down day.  This trend keeps on going.  My stop is slowly trailing behind.

This has pulled back today.  Some mean reversion is to be expected given the near continuous rise since mid-October.